Tag Archives: politics

Bolsonaro’s Trumpian Pact

Posted on October 29, 2018 by robdwyerbrazil

The Brazilian markets have been soaring in recent weeks as it became increasingly likely that Jair Bolsonaro would become Brazil’s next president. The real has been rallying; so too has the Bovespa. Now that Jair Bolsonaro’s victory as president has … Continue reading →

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How the markets now run Brazil …

Posted on March 26, 2018 by robdwyerbrazil

… with or without Henrique Meirelles. Brazil’s democracy has added a new feature in the last few years: people can vote for a president, but the markets retain the right to deploy an ‘impeachment put’ if that president is messing … Continue reading →

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Why investors aren’t pricing political risk properly

Posted on March 6, 2017 by robdwyerbrazil

In many respects the plan is working to perfection. Brazil’s business class wasn’t particularly discreet about its desire to get In many respects the plan is working to perfection. Brazil’s business class wasn’t particularly discreet about its desire to get … Continue reading →

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Who really kicked Dilma out?

Posted on May 12, 2016 by robdwyerbrazil

The decision by the Brazilian congress to authorise the impeachment trail of President Dilma Rousseff appears to have been largely priced-in. This follows a huge rally in Brazilian financial assets in 2016 as the possibility of impeachment grew, with the Ibovespa … Continue reading →

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Trigger-twitchy investors risk being hurt in Brazil

Posted on March 17, 2016 by robdwyerbrazil

Last night the political chaos in Brazil hit new levels when Federal Judge Sergio Moro released wiretap recordings between current President Dilma Rousseff and ex-President Lula. Some of the recordings were from earlier that same day, and appeared to be … Continue reading →

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Latin America: ditching the left, right?

Posted on January 6, 2016 by robdwyerbrazil

Cristina Kirchner has left the Casa Rosada. In Venezuela, Nicholas Maduro suffered a heavy defeat. In Brazil, Dilma Rousseff is officially its most unpopular president ever. What do these three countries, which are all rebelling against their long-time left-of-centre ruling … Continue reading →

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Brazil downgrade: buy the news?

Posted on September 9, 2015 by robdwyerbrazil

Standard & Poor’s surprised the market with its downgrade of Brazil’s sovereign rating to speculative grade late on Wednesday 9 September but the key question for equity investors is should they ‘buy the news’? Research by UBS, published on 18 … Continue reading →

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