Tag Archives: inflation

Argentina: Two confessions

Posted on April 25, 2018 by

I am going to confess an unpopular opinion: I am getting worried about Argentina.­ I am also going to confess to embarrassing naivety: I have been testing my hypothesis with the wrong bankers. But first, my concerns about Argentina. The … Continue reading →

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Argentina leaves markets worried about ability to grow

Posted on March 28, 2018 by

“It’s like chemotherapy. If you have it all at once, you are going to kill the patient. You need to find a dose that won’t kill the patient.” The patient being discussed by a senior capital markets banker in New … Continue reading →

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Argentina’s delicate balancing

Posted on October 2, 2017 by

President Mauricio Macri’s economic inheritance was toxic; his policy of gradual fiscal realignment looks like it will lead to success in this year’s crucial mid-term elections, but the country desperately needs investment to maintain the transition. Let me answer in … Continue reading →

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Argentina’s banks seek path to normalization

Posted on September 28, 2016 by

  Argentina’s banks are facing a difficult transition period as the government and the central bank (BCRA) attempt to lower inflation and the country’s base rates, as well as facing subdued credit demand thanks to the economic recession. The banks … Continue reading →

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Why a failure to raise Selic would be terrible news for Brazil.

Posted on January 19, 2016 by

  There are two reasons why the Brazilian Central Bank might surprise the market on Wednesday and hold Selic steady at 14.25% – but a failure to raise interest rates would spell very bad news for the economy. On Wednesday … Continue reading →

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Levy’s appointment postpones days of reckoning

Posted on November 27, 2014 by

After months of warning about how disastrous a Dilma Rousseff’s re-election would be, Brazil’s financiers and economists quickly regrouped and began suggesting that Brazil’s economy would be OK after all, just as long as the president picked a Finance Minister the market liked. Now … Continue reading →

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Central banking policy: beyond inflation, Brazilian style

Posted on January 10, 2013 by

With all the recent talk of Ben Bernanke’s recent new unemployment rate-related and GDP growth focused-monetary policy mandate for the Federal Reserve, and comments from soon-to-be Bank of England governor Mark Carney  reinforcing this shift away from myopic inflation-targeting, it is perhaps … Continue reading →

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