Tag Archives: FX

Argentina’s banks face strategy dilemma

Posted on May 11, 2018 by

The slow pace of Argentina’s fiscal reform programme finally caught up with its government last week and, compounded by an error in monetary strategy at the end of last year and a deteriorating risk environment for emerging markets, the country … Continue reading →

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Argentina: Two confessions

Posted on April 25, 2018 by

I am going to confess an unpopular opinion: I am getting worried about Argentina.­ I am also going to confess to embarrassing naivety: I have been testing my hypothesis with the wrong bankers. But first, my concerns about Argentina. The … Continue reading →

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Argentina’s delicate balancing

Posted on October 2, 2017 by

President Mauricio Macri’s economic inheritance was toxic; his policy of gradual fiscal realignment looks like it will lead to success in this year’s crucial mid-term elections, but the country desperately needs investment to maintain the transition. Let me answer in … Continue reading →

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Was Brazil’s crash an opportunity or the end of a bull run?

Posted on May 23, 2017 by

Bargain hunters came into the market for shares in the Brazilian banks at the end of last week as investors bought the crash that immediately followed a scandal that threatens to end Michel Temer’s presidency. However, while the subsequent recovery … Continue reading →

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Brazil’s Central Bank admits it thought “good times would last forever”.

Posted on October 10, 2015 by

Commodity exports overvalued the real, sending manufacturing “down the drain” The Brazilian Central Bank has admitted Brazil was taken by surprise by lower commodity prices and had failed to prepare for the end of the commodity cycle. “A few months … Continue reading →

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Spotting the bottom for the Brazilian real

Posted on April 8, 2015 by

The continued slide of the Brazilian real below most investment banks’ assessment of its fair valuation against the dollar is leading to increased speculation among international investors about an entry point into the currency, the carry trade and asset purchases … Continue reading →

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Brazil: Local bonds rally on suppressed FX volatility

Posted on August 14, 2014 by

The central bank of Brazil’s policy to lower FX volatility has created profitable investment opportunities for international investors while exacerbating domestic economic weaknesses.  Investors and economists say Brazil is opening profitable trades for offshore asset managers by its targeting of … Continue reading →

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