Author Archives: robdwyerbrazil

Will Argentina take all of its bitter medicine?

Argentina’s central bank says it knows it needs to restore credibility, but if the recession persists and with elections next year, could the BCRA use the embedded flexibility in the IMF’s  new monetary system to – again – ease too soon? Gradualism … Continue reading

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Bolsonaro’s Trumpian Pact

The Brazilian markets have been soaring in recent weeks as it became increasingly likely that Jair Bolsonaro would become Brazil’s next president. The real has been rallying; so too has the Bovespa. Now that Jair Bolsonaro’s victory as president has … Continue reading

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Argentina’s banks face strategy dilemma

The slow pace of Argentina’s fiscal reform programme finally caught up with its government last week and, compounded by an error in monetary strategy at the end of last year and a deteriorating risk environment for emerging markets, the country … Continue reading

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Interview: Niall Ferguson

Niall Ferguson has a call in a little over half an hour, he warns, after the introductions are done. He needs to call his immigration lawyer ahead of a naturalization examination he faces in the US on his return. As … Continue reading

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Argentina: Two confessions

I am going to confess an unpopular opinion: I am getting worried about Argentina.­ I am also going to confess to embarrassing naivety: I have been testing my hypothesis with the wrong bankers. But first, my concerns about Argentina. The … Continue reading

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Argentina leaves markets worried about ability to grow

“It’s like chemotherapy. If you have it all at once, you are going to kill the patient. You need to find a dose that won’t kill the patient.” The patient being discussed by a senior capital markets banker in New … Continue reading

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How the markets now run Brazil …

… with or without Henrique Meirelles. Brazil’s democracy has added a new feature in the last few years: people can vote for a president, but the markets retain the right to deploy an ‘impeachment put’ if that president is messing … Continue reading

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