Author Archives: robdwyerbrazil

Argentina’s banks face strategy dilemma

The slow pace of Argentina’s fiscal reform programme finally caught up with its government last week and, compounded by an error in monetary strategy at the end of last year and a deteriorating risk environment for emerging markets, the country … Continue reading

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Interview: Niall Ferguson

Niall Ferguson has a call in a little over half an hour, he warns, after the introductions are done. He needs to call his immigration lawyer ahead of a naturalization examination he faces in the US on his return. As … Continue reading

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Argentina: Two confessions

I am going to confess an unpopular opinion: I am getting worried about Argentina.­ I am also going to confess to embarrassing naivety: I have been testing my hypothesis with the wrong bankers. But first, my concerns about Argentina. The … Continue reading

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Argentina leaves markets worried about ability to grow

“It’s like chemotherapy. If you have it all at once, you are going to kill the patient. You need to find a dose that won’t kill the patient.” The patient being discussed by a senior capital markets banker in New … Continue reading

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How the markets now run Brazil …

… with or without Henrique Meirelles. Brazil’s democracy has added a new feature in the last few years: people can vote for a president, but the markets retain the right to deploy an ‘impeachment put’ if that president is messing … Continue reading

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Twisting Mexican risk

According to bankers and analysts in New York, the first questions that corporate clients and investors always ask about Mexico relate to Nafta. Questions about the political risk from this year’s election are secondary, almost an afterthought. However, this is getting … Continue reading

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Brazil’s Stone looks to follow PagSeguro in snubbing

The success of Brazil’s PagSeguro’s recent IPO on the NYSE has led its competitor, Stone, to draw up plans to launch on the US stock exchange this year, according to market sources. PagSeguro, which provides online and in-store payment services, raised … Continue reading

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